silkywhisky
Ardbeg / Islay

ARDBEG Dolce

1.04× fair value NAS rating 4.0/5 · n=4
cheapest
€98.79
thewhiskyshop
intrinsic
€95.13
N
2

Is it worth the price?

ARDBEG Dolce is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Ardbeg distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.0 out of 5 across 4 reviews. It is tracked at 2 retailers, ranging from €98.79 to €99.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €95.13. That is 1.04× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 12 Ardbeg bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
thewhiskyshop €98.79
whisky.fr €99.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.00 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€95.13
Actual price (median)
€98.90
Multiple
1.04×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.19
Cost floor
€23.33

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    heavily peated tradition; dunnage warehousing; closed 1981-1989
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    47.8% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    LVMH (via Glenmorangie) — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1815 (211 years of operation); closed 1981-1989
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.0/5 across 4 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
7 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.58
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€36.93
Actual price (median)
€98.90
Multiple
2.68×
Verdict band
brand premium

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,849 mm at Dippen (39 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Ardbeg