silkywhisky
Glenfiddich / Speyside

GLENFIDDICH Orchard Experiment

0.81× fair value NAS rating 4.4/5 · n=8
cheapest
€56.95
topdrinks
intrinsic
€71.41
N
3

Is it worth the price?

GLENFIDDICH Orchard Experiment is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Glenfiddich distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.4 out of 5 across 8 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €56.95 to €61.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €71.41. That is 0.81× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 10 Glenfiddich bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €56.95
whiskylodge €58.00
whisky.fr €61.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.38 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€71.41
Actual price (median)
€58.00
Multiple
0.81×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.10/cl × 70 cl)
€7.00
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.08
Cost floor
€14.96

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    own coopers; large-scale standard production
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    1 / 3
  • Ownership
    William Grant & Sons (family corporate) — production-led corporate
    1 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1886 (140 years of operation)
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.375/5 across 8 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
7 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.58
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€23.69
Actual price (median)
€58.00
Multiple
2.45×
Verdict band
brand premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €71.41 (0.81× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €23.69 (2.45×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 799 mm at Aberlour (6 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,323 mm, +37.30% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Glenfiddich