silkywhisky
Lochlea / Lowland

Lochlea Our Barley

0.86× fair value NAS rating 4.1/5 · n=60
cheapest
€57.53
thewhiskyshop
intrinsic
€67.54
N
2

Is it worth the price?

Lochlea Our Barley is a Lowland single malt Scotch from the Lochlea distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.1 out of 5 across 60 reviews. It is tracked at 2 retailers, ranging from €57.53 to €59.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €67.54. That is 0.86× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
thewhiskyshop €57.53
whiskylodge €59.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.11 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Lowland
Distillery tier
Budget Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€67.54
Actual price (median)
€58.27
Multiple
0.86×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.00
Cost floor
€24.42

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    100% estate-grown barley (single-farm provenance); single-estate farm distillery; barley grown on site
    3 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle; single-estate malt
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    ABV not declared; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    0 / 3
  • Ownership
    Lochlea Distillery (independent) — family multigenerational
    3 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 2018 (8 years of operation)
    0 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.11/5 across 60 reviews
    0 / 3
Quality score
6 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.50
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€36.63
Actual price (median)
€58.27
Multiple
1.59×
Verdict band
mild premium

Maturation context

Lowland · rolling 12 months: 900 mm at Prestwick (7 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.